| Abstract from DBPedia | Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits, and particularly "the determination of parameters for the next strong earthquake to occur in a region". Earthquake prediction is sometimes distinguished from earthquake forecasting, which can be defined as the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades. Not all scientists distinguish "prediction" and "forecast", but the distinction is useful. Prediction can be further distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning of seconds to neighboring regions that might be affected. In the 1970s, scientists were optimistic that a practical method for predicting earthquakes would soon be found, but by the 1990s continuing failure led many to question whether it was even possible. Demonstrably successful predictions of large earthquakes have not occurred and the few claims of success are controversial. For example, the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the . A later study said that there was no valid short-term prediction. Extensive searches have reported many possible earthquake precursors, but, so far, such precursors have not been reliably identified across significant spatial and temporal scales. While part of the scientific community hold that, taking into account non-seismic precursors and given enough resources to study them extensively, prediction might be possible, most scientists are pessimistic and some maintain that earthquake prediction is inherently impossible.地震予知（じしんよち、英語: Earthquake prediction）とは、地震の発生を予め知ることである。「地震予知」という語は、広範にはいわゆる「予知」を含んで言うが、学術的には科学的方法により地震の時期・場所・規模の3要素を論理立てて「予測」することを指す。ただし日本地震学会は、警報に繋がるような決定論的な予測のみを「地震予知」とし、それ以外の日常的に公表可能なもの（確率で表現されるもの）は「地震予測」とする新しい定義を、2012年秋に発表し、推奨している。なお、震源における断層破壊の発生後に行われる『緊急地震速報』の地震警報システムは、これらに含めない。 時間を指定するような短期的な予測、決定論的な地震予知は、現時点では出来ない。地震は唐突にやってくるという前提で、日頃から備えておくことが望まれる。 (Source: http://dbpedia.org/resource/Earthquake_prediction) |
